A Novel Method for Estimating Emissions Reductions Caused by the Restriction of Mobility: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic is the single largest event in contemporary history in terms of the global restriction of mobility, with the majority of the world population experiencing various forms of “lockdown”. This phenomenon incurred increased amounts of teleworking and time spent at home, fewer trips to shops, closure of retail outlets selling non-essential goods, and the near disappearance of leisure and recreational activities. This paper presents a novel method for an economy-wide estimate of the emissions reductions caused by the restriction of movement. Using a global multiregional macro-economic model complemented by Google Community Mobility Reports (CMRs) and national transport data, we cover 129 individual countries and quantify direct and indirect global emissions reductions of greenhouse gases (GHG;1173 Mt), PM2.5 (0.23 Mt), SO2 (1.57 Mt), and NOx (3.69 Mt). A statistically significant correlation is observed between cross-country emission reductions and the stringency of mobility restriction policies. Due to the aggregated nature of the CMRs, we develop different scenarios linked to consumption, work, and lifestyle aspects. Global reductions are on the order of 1–3% (GHG), 1–2% (PM2.5), 0.5–2.8% (SO2), and 3–4% (NOx). Our results can help support crucial decision making in the post-COVID world, with quantified information about how direct and indirect consequences of mobility changes benefit the environment.

Global socio-economic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic.

On 3 April 2020, the Director-General of the WHO stated: "[COVID-19] is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic (WHO, 2020)". Such consequences are the result of counter-measures such as lockdowns, and world-wide reductions in production and consumption, amplified by cascading impacts through international supply chains. Using a global multi-regional macro-economic model, we capture direct and indirect spill-over effects in terms of social and economic losses, as well as environmental effects of the pandemic. Based on information as of May 2020, we show that global consumption losses amount to 3.8$tr, triggering significant job (147 million full-time equivalent) and income (2.1$tr) losses. Global atmospheric emissions are reduced by 2.5Gt of greenhouse gases, 0.6Mt of PM2.5, and 5.1Mt of SO2 and NOx. While Asia, Europe and the USA have been the most directly impacted regions, and transport and tourism the immediately hit sectors, the indirect effects transmitted along international supply chains are being felt across the entire world economy. These ripple effects highlight the intrinsic link between socio-economic and environmental dimensions, and emphasise the challenge of addressing unsustainable global patterns. How humanity reacts to this crisis will define the post-pandemic world.